parameter values (.csv)

Download original .csv file from GitHub

	parameter_name	value	param_label	prior_min	prior_max	prior_note	param_label_note	value_note	Unnamed: 8	old values
0	prev_init_any_by_agegp	[0.070,0.130,0.127,0.024,0.027,0.019]	local	[0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]	[1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]	vague prior	Malawi-specific	<0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years, init prevalence of any wasting, ie of WHZ < -2		Ines—prev_init_any_by_agegp = [0.029,0.055,0.032,0.025,0.015,0.023] derived from prev_WHZ_distribution_mean_by_agegp = [0.6562448, 0.055192, 0.0242205, 0.0563448, 0.0934278, -0.0317801], prev_WHZ_distribution_sd_by_agegp = [1.397629, 1.28665, 1.090178, 1.046056, 0.9660208, 0.9833179]
1	prev_init_sev_by_agegp	[0.021,0.071,0.047,0.009,0.007,0.006]	local	[0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]	[1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]	vague prior	Malawi-specific	<0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years		Ines—prev_init_sev_by_agegp ~ [0.0044,0.0088,0.0028,0.0017,0.0007,0.0013] derived from prev_WHZ_distribution_mean_by_agegp = [0.6562448, 0.055192, 0.0242205, 0.0563448, 0.0934278, -0.0317801], prev_WHZ_distribution_sd_by_agegp = [1.397629, 1.28665, 1.090178, 1.046056, 0.9660208, 0.9833179]
2	max_age_child_wasting	5	local	1	10	vague prior
3
4	wasting_incidence_polling_freq_months	1	undetermined	1	12	design decision
5	min_days_to_relapse	14	local	0	90	vague prior	guesstimate based on a REF
6	base_overall_inc_rate_wasting	0.0076	undetermined	0	1	calibration	calibrated	0.0019*0.4, reference age group 1-5 months — bathtub model v2 calibrated with duration 81 to 0.019, expected to be lower due to sev→mod wasting not being included and duration likely being smaller on average as recovery and death occurs earlier, proportion calibrated with simulations (wasting_analysis__minimal_model-2025-03-29T233447Z) to 0.4		by agegp: [0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02]-Emmanuel assumed; [0.024,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.06, 0.06]–Ines’s rough estimates referred to Maleta etal 2003 Childhood malnutrition and its predictors in rural Malawi; [Maleta et al 2003]– my guesstimates – [0.0023,0.0099,0.0189,0.0102,0.003, 0.002], hence overall base inci rate = 0.0023
7	rr_inc_rate_wasting_by_agegp	[1.00, 1.22, 1.71, 0.30, 0.40, 0.26]	undetermined	[1.00, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01]	[1.00, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100]	calibration	calibrated	<0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5); bathtub model v2 calibrated rr		[Maleta et al 2003] – based on my guesstimates – [0.0023,0.0099,0.0189,0.0102,0.003, 0.002] translated into relative risks [1.00, 4.30, 8.22, 4.43, 1.30, 0.87] to work with the base_overall_inc_rate
8	rr_wasting_AGA_and_preterm	2.11	local	0.01	100	vague prior	sub-Saharan Africa-specific
9	rr_wasting_SGA_and_term	2.26	local	0.01	100	vague prior	sub-Saharan Africa-specific
10	rr_wasting_SGA_and_preterm	3.09	local	0.01	100	vague prior	sub-Saharan Africa-specific
11	rr_wasting_wealth_level	0.5	local	0.01	100	vague prior	slowly increasing, nonlinear relative risk assumed
12
13	min_days_duration_of_wasting	31	local	1	90	lowest bound from the 95% CIs for moderate and severe wasting duration	no REF
14	duration_of_untreated_mod_wasting	81	local	69	93	95% CI
15	duration_of_untreated_sev_wasting	45	local	31	68	95% CI
16	progression_severe_wasting_monthly_by_agegp	[0.3082, 0.8614, 0.4229, 0.4337, 0.2508, 0.3321]	undetermined	[0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]	[1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]	calibration	calibrated	<0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years; bathtub model v3 calibrated		[0.0027,0.0036,0.0079,0.0053,0.0025,0.002]– my guesstimates of monthly sev. wast. incidence based on Maleta etal 2003 Childhood malnutrition and its predictors in rural Malawi; [ 0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02], [0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5] – Emmanuel assumed; [0.02,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.03]–Ines’s dummy values referred to Maleta etal 2003 Childhood malnutrition and its predictors in rural Malawi
17	prob_complications_in_SAM	0.15	local	0.01	1	vague prior
18	duration_sam_to_death	30	local	1	90	vague prior	guesstimate based on a REF
19	base_death_rate_untreated_SAM	0.03	undetermined	0.00001	0.2	calibration	calibrated
20	rr_death_rate_by_agegp	[1.0, 1.0, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8]	local	[1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]	[1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]	vague prior	no REF	dummy	<0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years
21	recovery_rate_with_standard_RUTF	0.738	local	0.71	0.774	95% CI
22	recovery_rate_with_soy_RUSF	0.805	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior	Malawi-specific [currently not used]
23	recovery_rate_with_CSB++	0.8	local	0.25	0.95	range in a review study	Malawi-specific
24	recovery_rate_with_inpatient_care	0.704	local	65.4	75.3	95% CI	sub-Saharan Africa-specific
25	tx_length_weeks_SuppFeedingMAM	6	local	4	10	vague prior	Malawi-specific guesstimate based on REFs
26	tx_length_weeks_OutpatientSAM	7	local	2	15	vague prior	guesstimate based on REFs
27	tx_length_weeks_InpatientSAM	8	local	3	20	vague prior	guesstimate based on REFs
28
29	MUAC_distribution_WHZ<-3	[13.81053, 1.467763]	local	[9.5, 0.5]	[16, 2]	vague prior	Malawi-specific [currently not used]	dhs 2015
30	MUAC_distribution_-3<=WHZ<-2	[14.14828, 0.9847482]	local	[11.5, 0.5]	[16, 2]	vague prior	Malawi-specific [currently not used]
31	MUAC_distribution_WHZ>=-2	[15.1793, 1.20386]	local	[12.5, 0.5]	[17, 2]	vague prior	Malawi-specific	Ines referenced MMS 2015
32
33	odds_ratio_health_seeking_wasting_children	20	local	1	100	vague prior
34	growth_monitoring_first	42	local	1	90	vague prior	Malawi-specific
35	growth_monitoring_frequency_days_agecat	[47, 73, 182]	local	[30, 30, 30]	[90, 180, 365]	vague prior	Malawi-specific	<1, [1; 2), [2; 5) years; 7 appts for <1 with the first at 6 weeks of age, 5 appts a year for [1; 2), 2 appts a year for [2; 5) years old
36	growth_monitoring_attendance_prob_agecat	[0.76, 0.14, 0.5]	local	[0.01, 0.01, 0.01]	[1.00, 1.00, 1.00]	vague prior	Malawi-specific, Ghana-specific, Ghana-specific	<1, [1; 2), [2; 5) years
37
38	proportion_WHZ<-3_with_MUAC<115mm	0.4012	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior		(1-0.4012) will be WHZ<-3 with MUAC between 115-125mm
39	proportion_-3<=WHZ<-2_with_MUAC<115mm	0.3358	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior
40	proportion_-3<=WHZ<-2_with_MUAC_[115-125)mm	0.4081	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior		(1-0.3358-0.4081) will be -3<=WHZ<-2 with normal MUAC >125mm
41	proportion_mam_with_MUAC_[115-125)mm_and_normal_whz	0.5367	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior
42	proportion_mam_with_MUAC_[115-125)mm_and_-3<=WHZ<-2	0.2846	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior
43	proportion_mam_with_-3<=WHZ<-2_and_normal_MUAC	0.1787	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior
44	prevalence_nutritional_oedema	0.007	local	0	0.99	vague prior	Malawi-specific
45	proportion_WHZ<-2_with_oedema	0.007228	local	0.01	0.99	vague prior	East Africa-specific
46	proportion_oedema_with_WHZ<-2	0.374709077	local	0	0.99	vague prior	East Africa-specific	0.374709077
47	proportion_normal_whz	0.96	local	0.2	1	vague prior	Malawi-specific	1 - prevalence of wasting in 2010 [DHS 2010]
48
49	prob_death_after_SAMcare	0.011450382	undetermined	0	0.2	calibration	calibrated	0.03*0.1/(1−0.738) prob death after SAM care if not fully recovered (where recovery with tx is 0.1 times the base death rate for untreated SAM)