parameter values (.csv) ======================= :download:`Download original .csv file from GitHub ` ==== ========================================================== ================================================ ============== ==================================== =============================== ====================================================================== ================================================== =============================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================== ==================================================== =========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================== .. parameter\_name value param\_label prior\_min prior\_max prior\_note param\_label\_note value\_note Unnamed: 8 old values ==== ========================================================== ================================================ ============== ==================================== =============================== ====================================================================== ================================================== =============================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================== ==================================================== =========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================== 0 prev\_init\_any\_by\_agegp [0.070,0.130,0.127,0.024,0.027,0.019] local [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0] vague prior Malawi-specific <0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years, init prevalence of any wasting, ie of WHZ < -2 Ines---prev\_init\_any\_by\_agegp = [0.029,0.055,0.032,0.025,0.015,0.023] derived from prev\_WHZ\_distribution\_mean\_by\_agegp = [0.6562448, 0.055192, 0.0242205, 0.0563448, 0.0934278, -0.0317801], prev\_WHZ\_distribution\_sd\_by\_agegp = [1.397629, 1.28665, 1.090178, 1.046056, 0.9660208, 0.9833179] 1 prev\_init\_sev\_by\_agegp [0.021,0.071,0.047,0.009,0.007,0.006] local [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0] vague prior Malawi-specific <0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years Ines---prev\_init\_sev\_by\_agegp ~ [0.0044,0.0088,0.0028,0.0017,0.0007,0.0013] derived from prev\_WHZ\_distribution\_mean\_by\_agegp = [0.6562448, 0.055192, 0.0242205, 0.0563448, 0.0934278, -0.0317801], prev\_WHZ\_distribution\_sd\_by\_agegp = [1.397629, 1.28665, 1.090178, 1.046056, 0.9660208, 0.9833179] 2 max\_age\_child\_wasting 5 local 1 10 vague prior 3 4 wasting\_incidence\_polling\_freq\_months 1 undetermined 1 12 design decision 5 min\_days\_to\_relapse 14 local 0 90 vague prior guesstimate based on a REF 6 base\_overall\_inc\_rate\_wasting 0.0076 undetermined 0 1 calibration calibrated 0.0019\*0.4, reference age group 1-5 months --- bathtub model v2 calibrated with duration 81 to 0.019, expected to be lower due to sev→mod wasting not being included and duration likely being smaller on average as recovery and death occurs earlier, proportion calibrated with simulations (wasting\_analysis\_\_minimal\_model-2025-03-29T233447Z) to 0.4 by agegp: [0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02]-Emmanuel assumed; [0.024,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.06, 0.06]–Ines’s rough estimates referred to Maleta etal 2003 Childhood malnutrition and its predictors in rural Malawi; [Maleta et al 2003]– my guesstimates – [0.0023,0.0099,0.0189,0.0102,0.003, 0.002], hence overall base inci rate = 0.0023 7 rr\_inc\_rate\_wasting\_by\_agegp [1.00, 1.22, 1.71, 0.30, 0.40, 0.26] undetermined [1.00, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01] [1.00, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100] calibration calibrated <0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5); bathtub model v2 calibrated rr [Maleta et al 2003] – based on my guesstimates – [0.0023,0.0099,0.0189,0.0102,0.003, 0.002] translated into relative risks [1.00, 4.30, 8.22, 4.43, 1.30, 0.87] to work with the base\_overall\_inc\_rate 8 rr\_wasting\_AGA\_and\_preterm 2.11 local 0.01 100 vague prior sub-Saharan Africa-specific 9 rr\_wasting\_SGA\_and\_term 2.26 local 0.01 100 vague prior sub-Saharan Africa-specific 10 rr\_wasting\_SGA\_and\_preterm 3.09 local 0.01 100 vague prior sub-Saharan Africa-specific 11 rr\_wasting\_wealth\_level 0.5 local 0.01 100 vague prior slowly increasing, nonlinear relative risk assumed 12 13 min\_days\_duration\_of\_wasting 31 local 1 90 lowest bound from the 95% CIs for moderate and severe wasting duration no REF 14 duration\_of\_untreated\_mod\_wasting 81 local 69 93 95% CI 15 duration\_of\_untreated\_sev\_wasting 45 local 31 68 95% CI 16 progression\_severe\_wasting\_monthly\_by\_agegp [0.3082, 0.8614, 0.4229, 0.4337, 0.2508, 0.3321] undetermined [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0] calibration calibrated <0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years; bathtub model v3 calibrated [0.0027,0.0036,0.0079,0.0053,0.0025,0.002]– my guesstimates of monthly sev. wast. incidence based on Maleta etal 2003 Childhood malnutrition and its predictors in rural Malawi; [ 0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02], [0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5] – Emmanuel assumed; [0.02,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.03]–Ines’s dummy values referred to Maleta etal 2003 Childhood malnutrition and its predictors in rural Malawi 17 prob\_complications\_in\_SAM 0.15 local 0.01 1 vague prior 18 duration\_sam\_to\_death 30 local 1 90 vague prior guesstimate based on a REF 19 base\_death\_rate\_untreated\_SAM 0.03 undetermined 0.00001 0.2 calibration calibrated 20 rr\_death\_rate\_by\_agegp [1.0, 1.0, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8] local [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0] vague prior no REF dummy <0.5, [0.5; 1), [1; 2), [2; 3), [3; 4), [4; 5) years 21 recovery\_rate\_with\_standard\_RUTF 0.738 local 0.71 0.774 95% CI 22 recovery\_rate\_with\_soy\_RUSF 0.805 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior Malawi-specific [currently not used] 23 recovery\_rate\_with\_CSB++ 0.8 local 0.25 0.95 range in a review study Malawi-specific 24 recovery\_rate\_with\_inpatient\_care 0.704 local 65.4 75.3 95% CI sub-Saharan Africa-specific 25 tx\_length\_weeks\_SuppFeedingMAM 6 local 4 10 vague prior Malawi-specific guesstimate based on REFs 26 tx\_length\_weeks\_OutpatientSAM 7 local 2 15 vague prior guesstimate based on REFs 27 tx\_length\_weeks\_InpatientSAM 8 local 3 20 vague prior guesstimate based on REFs 28 29 MUAC\_distribution\_WHZ<-3 [13.81053, 1.467763] local [9.5, 0.5] [16, 2] vague prior Malawi-specific [currently not used] dhs 2015 30 MUAC\_distribution\_-3<=WHZ<-2 [14.14828, 0.9847482] local [11.5, 0.5] [16, 2] vague prior Malawi-specific [currently not used] 31 MUAC\_distribution\_WHZ>=-2 [15.1793, 1.20386] local [12.5, 0.5] [17, 2] vague prior Malawi-specific Ines referenced MMS 2015 32 33 odds\_ratio\_health\_seeking\_wasting\_children 20 local 1 100 vague prior 34 growth\_monitoring\_first 42 local 1 90 vague prior Malawi-specific 35 growth\_monitoring\_frequency\_days\_agecat [47, 73, 182] local [30, 30, 30] [90, 180, 365] vague prior Malawi-specific <1, [1; 2), [2; 5) years; 7 appts for <1 with the first at 6 weeks of age, 5 appts a year for [1; 2), 2 appts a year for [2; 5) years old 36 growth\_monitoring\_attendance\_prob\_agecat [0.76, 0.14, 0.5] local [0.01, 0.01, 0.01] [1.00, 1.00, 1.00] vague prior Malawi-specific, Ghana-specific, Ghana-specific <1, [1; 2), [2; 5) years 37 38 proportion\_WHZ<-3\_with\_MUAC<115mm 0.4012 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior (1-0.4012) will be WHZ<-3 with MUAC between 115-125mm 39 proportion\_-3<=WHZ<-2\_with\_MUAC<115mm 0.3358 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior 40 proportion\_-3<=WHZ<-2\_with\_MUAC\_[115-125)mm 0.4081 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior (1-0.3358-0.4081) will be -3<=WHZ<-2 with normal MUAC >125mm 41 proportion\_mam\_with\_MUAC\_[115-125)mm\_and\_normal\_whz 0.5367 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior 42 proportion\_mam\_with\_MUAC\_[115-125)mm\_and\_-3<=WHZ<-2 0.2846 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior 43 proportion\_mam\_with\_-3<=WHZ<-2\_and\_normal\_MUAC 0.1787 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior 44 prevalence\_nutritional\_oedema 0.007 local 0 0.99 vague prior Malawi-specific 45 proportion\_WHZ<-2\_with\_oedema 0.007228 local 0.01 0.99 vague prior East Africa-specific 46 proportion\_oedema\_with\_WHZ<-2 0.374709077 local 0 0.99 vague prior East Africa-specific 0.374709077 47 proportion\_normal\_whz 0.96 local 0.2 1 vague prior Malawi-specific 1 - prevalence of wasting in 2010 [DHS 2010] 48 49 prob\_death\_after\_SAMcare 0.011450382 undetermined 0 0.2 calibration calibrated 0.03\*0.1/(1−0.738) prob death after SAM care if not fully recovered (where recovery with tx is 0.1 times the base death rate for untreated SAM) ==== ========================================================== ================================================ ============== ==================================== =============================== ====================================================================== ================================================== =============================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================== ==================================================== ===========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================