PregnancySupervisor (.xlsx)

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parameter_values

	parameter_name	value	Primary Source (or calibration data)	Unnamed: 3
0	prob_ectopic_pregnancy	[0.01, 0.01]	[0.004937, 0.00366]	Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (2019) GBD Results Tool | GHDx, 2019. Available at: http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool (Accessed: 6 July 2021).
1	prob_care_seeking_ectopic_pre_rupture	[0.08, 0.08]	Flores, A. H. et al. (2015) ‘Frequency of utilisation of ultrasound in the diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy in Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A systematic review’, in African Journal of Emergency Medicine. African Federation for Emergency Medicine, pp. 31–36. doi: 10.1016/j.afjem.2014.08.001.
2	prob_ectopic_pregnancy_death	[0.02, 0.012]	Ministry of Health Malawi et al. (2010) Malawi 2010 EmONC Needs Assessment Final Report. Ministry of Health Malawi et al. (2015) Malawi Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care Needs Assessment, 2014.
3
4	prob_multiples	[0.0399, 0.0399]	Monden, C. W. S. and Smits, J. (2017) ‘Mortality among twins and singletons in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014: a pooled analysis of data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys in 30 countries’, The Lancet Global Health. Elsevier Ltd, 5(7), pp. e673–e679. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30197-3.
5
6	prob_placenta_praevia	[0.005,0.0058]	Senkoro, E. E. et al. (2017) ‘Frequency, Risk Factors, and Adverse Fetomaternal Outcomes of Placenta Previa in Northern Tanzania’, Journal of Pregnancy. Hindawi Limited, 2017. doi: 10.1155/2017/5936309.
7	rr_placenta_praevia_previous_cs	[1.47,1.47]	Yang, Q. et al. (2007) ‘Association of caesarean delivery for first birth with placenta praevia and placental abruption in second pregnancy’, BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology. BJOG, 114(5), pp. 609–613. doi: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2007.01295.x.
8
9	prob_syphilis_during_pregnancy	[0.028, 0.028]	Malawi Integrated HIV Program Reports
10
11	prob_previous_miscarriage_at_baseline	0.047	National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi], ICF. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16. Zomba, Malawi, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF, 2017
12	prob_spontaneous_abortion_per_month	[[0.025, 0.037, 0.05, 0.037, 0.025], [0.025, 0.037, 0.05, 0.037, 0.025]]	Levandowski, B. A. et al. (2013) The Incidence of Induced Abortion in Malawi, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41959960 (Accessed: 5 July 2021). Polis, C. B. et al. (2017) ‘Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015’, PLoS ONE. Public Library of Science, 12(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173639.
13	rr_spont_abortion_age_35	[4, 4]	Dellicour, S. et al. (2016) ‘Weekly miscarriage rates in a community-based prospective cohort study in rural western Kenya’, BMJ Open, 6(4). doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011088.
14	rr_spont_abortion_age_31_34	[2.31, 2.31]	Dellicour, S. et al. (2016) ‘Weekly miscarriage rates in a community-based prospective cohort study in rural western Kenya’, BMJ Open, 6(4). doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011088.
15	rr_spont_abortion_prev_sa	[2.23, 2.23]	Dellicour, S. et al. (2016) ‘Weekly miscarriage rates in a community-based prospective cohort study in rural western Kenya’, BMJ Open, 6(4). doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011088.
16	prob_complicated_sa	[0.11, 0.11]	Levandowski, B. A. et al. (2013) The Incidence of Induced Abortion in Malawi, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41959960 (Accessed: 5 July 2021). Polis, C. B. et al. (2017) ‘Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015’, PLoS ONE. Public Library of Science, 12(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173639.
17	prob_induced_abortion_per_month	[0.038, 0.038]	Levandowski, B. A. et al. (2013) The Incidence of Induced Abortion in Malawi, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41959960 (Accessed: 5 July 2021). Polis, C. B. et al. (2017) ‘Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015’, PLoS ONE. Public Library of Science, 12(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173639.
18	prob_complicated_ia	[0.37 ,0.37]	Levandowski, B. A. et al. (2013) The Incidence of Induced Abortion in Malawi, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41959960 (Accessed: 5 July 2021). Polis, C. B. et al. (2017) ‘Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015’, PLoS ONE. Public Library of Science, 12(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173639.
19	prob_haemorrhage_post_abortion	[0.23, 0.23]	The magnitude and severity of abortion-related morbidity in settings with limited access to abortion services: a systematic review and meta-regression’, BMJ Global Health. BMJ Publishing Group, 3(3), p. e000692. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000692.
20	prob_sepsis_post_abortion	[0.137, 0.137]	Kalilani-Phiri, L. et al. (2015) ‘The severity of abortion complications in Malawi’, International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics. Elsevier Ireland Ltd, 128(2), pp. 160–164. doi: 10.1016/j.ijgo.2014.08.022.
21	prob_injury_post_abortion	[0.056, 0.056]	Kalilani-Phiri, L. et al. (2015) ‘The severity of abortion complications in Malawi’, International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics. Elsevier Ireland Ltd, 128(2), pp. 160–164. doi: 10.1016/j.ijgo.2014.08.022.
22	prob_spontaneous_abortion_death	[0.01, 0.005]	Ministry of Health Malawi et al. (2010) Malawi 2010 EmONC Needs Assessment Final Report. Ministry of Health Malawi et al. (2015) Malawi Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care Needs Assessment, 2014.
23	prob_induced_abortion_death	[0.005, 0.0025]	Ministry of Health Malawi et al. (2010) Malawi 2010 EmONC Needs Assessment Final Report. Ministry of Health Malawi et al. (2015) Malawi Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care Needs Assessment, 2014.
24
25
26	baseline_prob_anaemia_per_month	[0.1, 0.12]	National Statistical Office (NSO), ICF Macro. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2010. Zomba, Malawi, and Calverton, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF Macro, 2011. National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi], ICF. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16. Zomba, Malawi, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF, 2017
27	rr_anaemia_maternal_malaria	[1.45, 1.45]
28	rr_anaemia_hiv_no_art	[4.19, 4.19]
29	prob_mild_mod_sev_anaemia	[[0.52,0.475, 0.005], [0.50, 0.46, 0.04]]	National Statistical Office (NSO), ICF Macro. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2010. Zomba, Malawi, and Calverton, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF Macro, 2011. National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi], ICF. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16. Zomba, Malawi, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF, 2017
30
31	prob_gest_diab_per_month	[0.0056, 0.0056]	Phiri, T. J., Kasiya, M. and Allain, T. (2019) Full Prevalence Of Gestational Diabetes In Urban Women In Blantyre, Malawi: A Cross Sectional Study And Comparison Of Who And IADPSG Criteria. doi: 10.21203/rs.2.13491/v1.
32	rr_gest_diab_obesity	[3.97, 3.97]	Santos, S. et al. (2019) ‘Impact of maternal body mass index and gestational weight gain on pregnancy complications: an individual participant data meta-analysis of European, North American and Australian cohorts’, BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology. Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 126(8), pp. 984–995. doi: 10.1111/1471-0528.15661.
33
34	prob_gest_htn_per_month	[0.0073, 0.0073]	[0.0084, 0.0083]
35	rr_gest_htn_obesity	[3.31, 3.31]
36	prob_pre_eclampsia_per_month	[0.0065,0.0065]	[0.00825,0.00825]
37	rr_pre_eclampsia_obesity	[3.2, 3.2]
38	rr_pre_eclampsia_multiple_pregnancy	[4.07, 4.07]
39	rr_pre_eclampsia_chronic_htn	[2.26, 2.26]
40	rr_pre_eclampsia_diabetes_mellitus	[3.7, 3.7]
41	probs_for_mgh_matrix	[[0.918, 0.032, 0.05, 0, 0], [0.918, 0.032, 0.05, 0, 0]]	[[0.686, 0.264, 0.05, 0, 0], [0.686, 0.264, 0.05, 0, 0]]	[[0.884, 0.066, 0.05, 0, 0], [0.884, 0.066, 0.05, 0, 0]]
42	probs_for_sgh_matrix	[[0, 0.87, 0, 0.13, 0], [0, 0.87, 0, 0.13, 0]]
43	probs_for_mpe_matrix	[[0, 0, 0.78, 0.22, 0], [0, 0, 0.78, 0.22, 0]]	[[0, 0, 0.89, 0.11, 0], [0, 0, 0.89, 0.11, 0]]
44	probs_for_spe_matrix	[[0, 0, 0, 0.16, 0.84], [0, 0, 0, 0.16, 0.84]]	[[0, 0, 0, 0.868, 0.132], [0, 0, 0, 0.868, 0.132]]
45	probs_for_ec_matrix	[[0, 0, 0, 0, 1], [0, 0, 0, 0, 1]]
46	prob_severe_pre_eclampsia_death	[0.018, 0.018]
47	prob_eclampsia_death	[0.028, 0.03]
48	prob_monthly_death_severe_htn	[0.0001, 0.0001]	N/A
49
50	prob_placental_abruption_per_month	[0.0005, 0.0005]
51	rr_placental_abruption_hypertension	[2.2, 2.2]
52	rr_placental_abruption_previous_cs	[1.3, 1.3]
53
54	prob_aph_placenta_praevia	[0.09, 0.09]	[0.0865, 0.0865]
55	prob_aph_placental_abruption	[0.9, 0.9]
56	prob_mod_sev_aph	[[0.8, 0.2], [0.8, 0.2]]	[[0.4, 0.6], [0.4, 0.6]]
57	prob_antepartum_haemorrhage_death	[0.11, 0.04]
58
59	prob_prom_per_month	[0.0064, 0.0064]	[0.0064, 0.0064]
60
61	prob_chorioamnionitis	[0.015, 0.013]
62	prob_antenatal_sepsis_death	[0.75, 0.49]	[0.5, 0.415]
63
64	baseline_prob_early_labour_onset	[[0.0008, 0.0033,0.017, 0.04], [0.0008, 0.0033,0.017, 0.04]]
65	rr_preterm_labour_post_prom	[5.9, 5.9]
66	rr_preterm_labour_anaemia	[4.58, 4.58]
67	rr_preterm_labour_malaria	[3.08, 3.08]
68	rr_preterm_labour_multiple_pregnancy	[3.44, 3.44]
69
70	prob_still_birth_per_month	[0.0031, 0.0026]
71	rr_still_birth_ga_41	[2.24, 2.24]
72	rr_still_birth_ga_42	[3.88, 3.88]
73	rr_still_birth_ga_>42	[6.94, 6.94]
74	rr_still_birth_gest_diab	[3.91, 3.91]
75	rr_still_birth_diab_mellitus	[3.52, 3.52]
76	rr_still_birth_maternal_malaria	[1.81, 1.81]
77	rr_still_birth_maternal_syphilis	[6.87, 6.87]
78	rr_still_birth_pre_eclampsia	[4.15, 4.15]
79	rr_still_birth_eclampsia	[4.15, 4.15]
80	rr_still_birth_gest_htn	[1.21, 1.21]
81	rr_still_birth_chronic_htn	[2.32, 2.23]
82	rr_still_birth_aph	[2.1, 2.1]
83	rr_still_birth_chorio	[2, 2]	https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14767058.2020.1852206
84
85	prob_seek_care_pregnancy_complication	[0.782, 0.782]	Chinkhumba, J. et al. (2017) ‘Household costs and time to seek care for pregnancy related complications: The role of results-based financing’, PLOS ONE. Public Library of Science, 12(9), p. e0182326. doi: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0182326.
86	prob_seek_care_pregnancy_loss	[0.782, 0.782]	Chinkhumba, J. et al. (2017) ‘Household costs and time to seek care for pregnancy related complications: The role of results-based financing’, PLOS ONE. Public Library of Science, 12(9), p. e0182326. doi: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0182326.
87	prob_seek_care_induction	[0.2, 0.2]	N/A
88
89	prob_anc1_months_2_to_4	[[0.165, 0.165, 0.67], [0.165, 0.364, 0.471]]	National Statistical Office (NSO), ICF Macro. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2010. Zomba, Malawi, and Calverton, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF Macro, 2011. National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi], ICF. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16. Zomba, Malawi, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: NSO and ICF, 2017
90	prob_anc1_months_5_to_9	[[0.345, 0.245, 0.28, 0.015, 0.015, 0.1], [0.41, 0.25, 0.21, 0.015, 0.015, 0.1]]	As above.
91	odds_early_init_anc4	[0.32, 0.58]	As above.
92	aor_early_anc4_20_24	[1.26, 1.26]	As above.
93	aor_early_anc4_25_29	[1.44, 1.44]	As above.
94	aor_early_anc4_30_34	[1.49, 1.49]	As above.
95	aor_early_anc4_35_39	[1.64, 1.64]	As above.
96	aor_early_anc4_40_44	[1.51, 1.51]	As above.
97	aor_early_anc4_45_49	[1.91, 1.91]	As above.
98	aor_early_anc4_2010	[1.51, 1.51]	As above.
99	aor_early_anc4_2015	[2.03, 2.03]	As above.
100	aor_early_anc4_parity_2_3	[0.74, 0.74]	As above.
101	aor_early_anc4_parity_4_5	[0.65, 0.65]	As above.
102	aor_early_anc4_parity_6+	[0.61, 0.61]	As above.
103	aor_early_anc4_secondary_edu	[1.24, 1.24]	As above.
104	aor_early_anc4_tertiary_edu	[2.64, 2.64]	As above.
105	aor_early_anc4_richest_wealth	[1.32, 1.32]	As above.
106	prob_late_initiation_anc4	[0.3, 0.29]	[0.215, 0.143]
107	prob_early_initiation_anc_below4	[0.115, 0.101]	As above.
108	prob_early_anc_at_facility_level_1_2	[[0.5, 0.5], [0.5, 0.5]]	N/A
109
110	treatment_effect_ectopic_pregnancy_treatment	[0.1, 0.1]
111	treatment_effect_post_abortion_care	[0.2, 0.2]
112	treatment_effect_iron_folic_acid_anaemia	[0.3, 0.3]
113	treatment_effect_calcium_pre_eclamp	[0.45, 0.45]
114	treatment_effect_gest_htn_calcium	[0.65, 0.65]
115	treatment_effect_anti_htns_progression	[0.49, 0.49]
116	prob_glycaemic_control_diet_exercise	[0.5, 0.5]	N/A
117	prob_glycaemic_control_orals	[0.936, 0.936]	Glibenclamide, metformin, and insulin for the treatment of gestational diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
118	treatment_effect_gdm_case_management	[0.9, 0.9]
119	treatment_effect_still_birth_food_sups	[0.6, 0.6]
120
121	anc_service_structure	8	N/A
122	ps_analysis_in_progress	False
123	alternative_anc_coverage	False
124	alternative_anc_quality	False
125	anc_availability_odds	9
126	anc_availability_probability	0.9
127	alternative_ip_anc_quality	False
128	ip_anc_availability_probability	0.9
129	sens_analysis_min	False
130	sens_analysis_max	False
131	analysis_year	2023