cmd condition onset (.xlsx)

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	ResourceFile_cmd_condition_onset
0	Created by Britta Jewell on 25 March 2021
1
2	This file reads in parameters for the onset of each condition annually in the CMD module in the TLO model. Each tab represents one condition modelled.
3	baseline_annual_probability has been calibrated for each condition to data from Malawi. All other parameters are from Professor Ed Gregg’s group. Where possible, sources are listed to the right of the parameter values.

diabetes

	parameter_name	value	Unnamed: 2
0	baseline_annual_probability	0.00028
1	rr_male	1.15	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
2	rr_0_4	0	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
3	rr_5_9	0	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
4	rr_10_14	0	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
5	rr_15_19	0	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
6	rr_20_24	1	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
7	rr_25_29	1	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
8	rr_30_34	1.6	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
9	rr_35_39	2.215384615384615	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
10	rr_40_44	3	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
11	rr_45_49	4	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
12	rr_50_54	4.5	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
13	rr_55_59	6	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
14	rr_60_64	6.5	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
15	rr_65_69	7	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
16	rr_70_74	4	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
17	rr_75_79	3	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
18	rr_80_84	2	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
19	rr_85_89	2	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
20	rr_90_94	1	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
21	rr_95_99	1	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
22	rr_100	1	Holden et al., 2013, UK Pop (CPRD)
23	rr_urban
24	rr_wealth_1	1	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
25	rr_wealth_2	0.8333333333333334	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
26	rr_wealth_3	0.7916666666666666	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
27	rr_wealth_4	0.75	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
28	rr_wealth_5	0.7083333333333334	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
29	rr_bmi_1	1.1	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
30	rr_bmi_2	1	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
31	rr_bmi_3	2.9	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
32	rr_bmi_4	6	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
33	rr_bmi_5	10	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
34	rr_low_exercise	1.33	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
35	rr_high_salt	1
36	rr_high_sugar	1.2	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
37	rr_tobacco	1.3	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
38	rr_alcohol
39	rr_marital_status_1
40	rr_marital_status_2
41	rr_marital_status_3
42	rr_in_education	1.2	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
43	rr_current_education_level_1	1.2	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
44	rr_current_education_level_2	1	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
45	rr_current_education_level_3	0.85	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
46	rr_unimproved_sanitation	1
47	rr_no_access_handwashing	1
48	rr_no_clean_drinking_water	1.05	Estimates from Ed Gregg
49	rr_wood_burning_stove	1.05	Estimates from Ed Gregg
50	rr_diabetes	1
51	rr_hypertension	1.75	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
52	rr_depression	1.48	Bellou et al., Systematic Reviews, 2018
53	rr_chronic_kidney_disease	1
54	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain	1
55	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease	1
56	rr_cancers	1
57	rr_hiv	1
58	rr_ever_stroke	1
59	rr_ever_heart_attack	1
60	rr_diabetes_on_medication	1
61	rr_hypertension_on_medication	1
62	rr_chronic_kidney_disease_on_medication	1
63	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain_on_medication	1
64	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease_on_medication	1
65	rr_stroke_on_medication	1
66	rr_heart_attack_on_medication	1

hypertension

	parameter_name	value	Unnamed: 2
0	baseline_annual_probability	0.0045
1	rr_male	0.95
2	rr_0_4	0	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
3	rr_5_9	0	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
4	rr_10_14	0	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
5	rr_15_19	0	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
6	rr_20_24	0.33783783783783783	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
7	rr_25_29	1.0033783783783785	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
8	rr_30_34	1.0033783783783785	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
9	rr_35_39	1	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
10	rr_40_44	1	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
11	rr_45_49	1.652027027027027	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
12	rr_50_54	1.652027027027027	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
13	rr_55_59	2.135135135135135	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
14	rr_60_64	2.135135135135135	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
15	rr_65_69	2.385135135135135	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
16	rr_70_74	2.385135135135135	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
17	rr_75_79	2.679054054054054	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
18	rr_80_84	2.679054054054054	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
19	rr_85_89	2.679054054054054	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
20	rr_90_94	2.679054054054054	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
21	rr_95_99	2.679054054054054	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
22	rr_100	2.679054054054054	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
23	rr_urban
24	rr_wealth_1	1	Coyle et al., 2019, English GP Data
25	rr_wealth_2	1.0396039603960396	Coyle et al., 2019, English GP Data
26	rr_wealth_3	1.0693069306930694	Coyle et al., 2019, English GP Data
27	rr_wealth_4	1.0396039603960396	Coyle et al., 2019, English GP Data
28	rr_wealth_5	0.9900990099009901	Coyle et al., 2019, English GP Data
29	rr_bmi_1	0.5263157894736842	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
30	rr_bmi_2	1	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
31	rr_bmi_3	1.6894736842105265	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
32	rr_bmi_4	1.7210526315789474	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
33	rr_bmi_5	2.2052631578947373	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
34	rr_low_exercise	1.16	Andriolo et al., 2019, EPIC-Potsdam Study
35	rr_high_salt	1.88	Chen et al., 2018, Taiwan, Genetic Study
36	rr_high_sugar	1.03	Estimate from Ed Greg
37	rr_tobacco	1.04	Andriolo et al., 2019, EPIC-Potsdam Study
38	rr_alcohol	1.31	Pajak et al., 2013, HAPIEE Study, Russia Poland Czech
39	rr_marital_status_1	1	Estimate from Ed Greg
40	rr_marital_status_2	1.449	Estimate from Ed Greg
41	rr_marital_status_3	1.03	Estimate from Ed Greg
42	rr_in_education	1
43	rr_current_education_level_1	1.34	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
44	rr_current_education_level_2	1	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
45	rr_current_education_level_3	1.42	Health Survey for England Hypertension Prevalence Models
46	rr_unimproved_sanitation	1
47	rr_no_access_handwashing	1
48	rr_no_clean_drinking_water	1
49	rr_wood_burning_stove	1
50	rr_diabetes	1.92	Derakhshan et al., 2016, Iranian Study
51	rr_hypertension	1
52	rr_depression	1.42	Lin et al., 2012, Meta-Analysis Depression and Hypertension
53	rr_chronic_kidney_disease	1
54	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain	1
55	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease	1
56	rr_cancers	1
57	rr_hiv	1
58	rr_ever_stroke	1
59	rr_ever_heart_attack	1
60	rr_diabetes_on_medication	1
61	rr_hypertension_on_medication	1
62	rr_chronic_kidney_disease_on_medication	1
63	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain_on_medication	1
64	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease_on_medication	1
65	rr_stroke_on_medication	1
66	rr_heart_attack_on_medication	1

chronic_lower_back_pain

	parameter_name	value	Unnamed: 2
0	baseline_annual_probability	0.006
1	rr_male	1
2	rr_0_4	0
3	rr_5_9	0
4	rr_10_14	0
5	rr_15_19	0
6	rr_20_24	0.69
7	rr_25_29	1
8	rr_30_34	1.4461538461538461
9	rr_35_39	2.215384615384615
10	rr_40_44	2.769230769230769
11	rr_45_49	3.538461538461538
12	rr_50_54	3.815384615384615
13	rr_55_59	5
14	rr_60_64	4.923076923076923
15	rr_65_69	4.369230769230769
16	rr_70_74	4.369230769230769
17	rr_75_79	4.923076923076923
18	rr_80_84	4.369230769230769
19	rr_85_89	3.692307692307692
20	rr_90_94	1.6153846153846154
21	rr_95_99	1.5384615384615383
22	rr_100	1.5384615384615383
23	rr_urban
24	rr_wealth_1	1	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
25	rr_wealth_2	0.9	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
26	rr_wealth_3	1	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
27	rr_wealth_4	1.4	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
28	rr_wealth_5	1.4	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
29	rr_bmi_1	1	Heuch et al., 2013, Follow-up in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study
30	rr_bmi_2	1	Heuch et al., 2013, Follow-up in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study
31	rr_bmi_3	1.21	Heuch et al., 2013, Follow-up in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study
32	rr_bmi_4	1.28	Heuch et al., 2013, Follow-up in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study
33	rr_bmi_5	1.28	Heuch et al., 2013, Follow-up in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study
34	rr_low_exercise
35	rr_high_salt
36	rr_high_sugar
37	rr_tobacco	1.78	Shiri et al., 2010; meta-analysis
38	rr_alcohol
39	rr_marital_status_1	1	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
40	rr_marital_status_2	1.4285714285714286	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
41	rr_marital_status_3	1.5714285714285716	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
42	rr_in_education	1.5	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
43	rr_current_education_level_1	1.5	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
44	rr_current_education_level_2	1	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
45	rr_current_education_level_3	1	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
46	rr_unimproved_sanitation
47	rr_no_access_handwashing
48	rr_no_clean_drinking_water
49	rr_wood_burning_stove
50	rr_diabetes	2.72	Pozzobbon et al, 2019, meta-analysis
51	rr_hypertension	0.79	Bae et al, 2015, KNHANES IV
52	rr_depression	1.5	Docking et al, 2011; Cambridge City over 75s Cohort
53	rr_chronic_kidney_disease
54	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain
55	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease
56	rr_cancers
57	rr_hiv	1
58	rr_ever_stroke	2.35	Wang et al, 2020
59	rr_ever_heart_attack	1
60	rr_diabetes_on_medication	1
61	rr_hypertension_on_medication	1
62	rr_chronic_kidney_disease_on_medication	1
63	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain_on_medication	1
64	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease_on_medication	1
65	rr_stroke_on_medication	1
66	rr_heart_attack_on_medication	1

chronic_kidney_disease

	parameter_name	value	Unnamed: 2
0	baseline_annual_probability	0.0007
1	rr_male	1.25	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
2	rr_0_4	0
3	rr_5_9	0
4	rr_10_14	0
5	rr_15_19	0
6	rr_20_24	0.5154639175257733	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
7	rr_25_29	0.5154639175257733	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
8	rr_30_34	0.5154639175257733	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
9	rr_35_39	1	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
10	rr_40_44	1	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
11	rr_45_49	1.675257731958763	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
12	rr_50_54	1.675257731958763	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
13	rr_55_59	2.8762886597938144	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
14	rr_60_64	2.8762886597938144	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
15	rr_65_69	4.190721649484536	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
16	rr_70_74	4.190721649484536	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
17	rr_75_79	5.190721649484536	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
18	rr_80_84	5.190721649484536	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
19	rr_85_89	2.0876288659793816	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
20	rr_90_94	2.0876288659793816	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
21	rr_95_99	2.0876288659793816	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
22	rr_100	2.0876288659793816	Judge A. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2012
23	rr_urban
24	rr_wealth_1	1	Weldegiorgis M. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2020
25	rr_wealth_2	1.26	Weldegiorgis M. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2020
26	rr_wealth_3	1.36	Weldegiorgis M. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2020
27	rr_wealth_4	1.63	Weldegiorgis M. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2020
28	rr_wealth_5	1.73	Weldegiorgis M. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2020
29	rr_bmi_1	1.02	Herrington WG. et al. PLoS One. 2017
30	rr_bmi_2	1	Herrington WG. et al. PLoS One. 2018
31	rr_bmi_3	1.45	Herrington WG. et al. PLoS One. 2019
32	rr_bmi_4	1.66	Herrington WG. et al. PLoS One. 2020
33	rr_bmi_5	2.2	Herrington WG. et al. PLoS One. 2021
34	rr_low_exercise
35	rr_high_salt
36	rr_high_sugar
37	rr_tobacco	1.24	Bello A et al. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2008
38	rr_alcohol	1.33	Hossain M et al. Nephron Clin Pract. 2012
39	rr_marital_status_1	1	Akrawi D et al. Eur J Intern Med. 2014
40	rr_marital_status_2	0.8620689655172414	Akrawi D et al. Eur J Intern Med. 2014
41	rr_marital_status_3	0.8620689655172414	Akrawi D et al. Eur J Intern Med. 2014
42	rr_in_education	1.3454545454545452	Weldegiorgis M. et al. Nep Dial Trans. 2020
43	rr_current_education_level_1	1.1818181818181817	Fored C et al. Nep Dial Tran. 2003
44	rr_current_education_level_2	1	Fored C et al. Nep Dial Tran. 2003
45	rr_current_education_level_3	0.9090909090909091	Fored C et al. Nep Dial Tran. 2003
46	rr_unimproved_sanitation
47	rr_no_access_handwashing
48	rr_no_clean_drinking_water
49	rr_wood_burning_stove
50	rr_diabetes	1.87	Bello A et al. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2008
51	rr_hypertension	1.75	Bello A et al. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2008
52	rr_depression	1.62	Kop W et al. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2011
53	rr_chronic_kidney_disease	1
54	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain	1.3	Lipworth et al. PlosOne 2012
55	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease	1
56	rr_cancers	1
57	rr_hiv	1
58	rr_ever_stroke	1
59	rr_ever_heart_attack	1
60	rr_diabetes_on_medication	1
61	rr_hypertension_on_medication	1
62	rr_chronic_kidney_disease_on_medication	1
63	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain_on_medication	1
64	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease_on_medication	1
65	rr_stroke_on_medication	1
66	rr_heart_attack_on_medication	1

chronic_ischemic_hd

	parameter_name	value	Unnamed: 2
0	baseline_annual_probability	8.6e-05
1	rr_male	2.3
2	rr_0_4	0
3	rr_5_9	0
4	rr_10_14	0
5	rr_15_19	0
6	rr_20_24	0.1401360544217687	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
7	rr_25_29	1	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
8	rr_30_34	1	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
9	rr_35_39	1	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
10	rr_40_44	1	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
11	rr_45_49	1	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
12	rr_50_54	7	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
13	rr_55_59	7	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
14	rr_60_64	7	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
15	rr_65_69	7	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
16	rr_70_74	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
17	rr_75_79	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
18	rr_80_84	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
19	rr_85_89	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
20	rr_90_94	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
21	rr_95_99	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
22	rr_100	12	IHME https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
23	rr_urban
24	rr_wealth_1	1	Witte et al., 2017, Deprivation Chronic Heart Failure, UK
25	rr_wealth_2	1.12	Witte et al., 2017, Deprivation Chronic Heart Failure, UK
26	rr_wealth_3	1.24	Witte et al., 2017, Deprivation Chronic Heart Failure, UK
27	rr_wealth_4	1.36	Witte et al., 2017, Deprivation Chronic Heart Failure, UK
28	rr_wealth_5	1.48	Witte et al., 2017, Deprivation Chronic Heart Failure, UK
29	rr_bmi_1	1	Jousilahti et al, 1996, BMI CVD Finland
30	rr_bmi_2	1	Jousilahti et al, 1996, BMI CVD Finland
31	rr_bmi_3	2.08	Jousilahti et al, 1996, BMI CVD Finland
32	rr_bmi_4	7.28	Jousilahti et al, 1996, BMI CVD Finland
33	rr_bmi_5	12.48	Jousilahti et al, 1996, BMI CVD Finland
34	rr_low_exercise	2.4	Strazzullo et al, 2009, Meta-analysis
35	rr_high_salt	1.17	Strazzullo et al, 2009, Meta-analysis
36	rr_high_sugar
37	rr_tobacco	1.4	Strazzullo et al, 2009, Meta-analysis
38	rr_alcohol	1.44	Emberson et al., 2005 Alcohol CHD
39	rr_marital_status_1
40	rr_marital_status_2
41	rr_marital_status_3
42	rr_in_education	1.67	Kilander et al, 2001, Swedish Cohort Men
43	rr_current_education_level_1	1.67	Kilander et al, 2001, Swedish Cohort Men
44	rr_current_education_level_2	1
45	rr_current_education_level_3	1
46	rr_unimproved_sanitation
47	rr_no_access_handwashing
48	rr_no_clean_drinking_water
49	rr_wood_burning_stove
50	rr_diabetes	2.19	Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration, 2003
51	rr_hypertension	3.8	Alderman et al, 1997, MI HTN
52	rr_depression
53	rr_chronic_kidney_disease	1.55	Angelantonio et al., 2010, Prospective Study Iceland
54	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain
55	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease
56	rr_cancers
57	rr_hiv	1.61
58	rr_ever_stroke	1
59	rr_ever_heart_attack	1
60	rr_diabetes_on_medication	1
61	rr_hypertension_on_medication	0.72	Neal et al., Effects of ACE inhibitors, calcium antagonists, and other blood- pressure-lowering drugs: results of prospectively designed overviews of randomised trials. Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists’ Collaboration, The Lancet 2000
62	rr_chronic_kidney_disease_on_medication	1
63	rr_chronic_lower_back_pain_on_medication	1
64	rr_chronic_ischemic_heart_disease_on_medication	1
65	rr_stroke_on_medication	1
66	rr_heart_attack_on_medication	1